Apple, as the center of attention in global ICT scene for every little step it takes, not only designs innovative hardware but also pioneers in the belief that software and service will be the two cornerstones of winning out in the era of digital consumer electronics. Apple’s three-in-one strategy, having mobile device, portable computer, and digital home hardware rolled into one, is counted on to take US ICT market by storm in 2010. Carlos Yu, Director with American West Research Center of Topology Research Institute, predicts that in 2010, US ICT market will be worth over US$ 1 trillion, of which mobile device, portable computer, and digital home hardware combined will contribute 15%, and wireless/wired technologies, software, services that extend from these three products will contribute over 50% to justify Apply’s decision to go down this path.

In our opinion, what Apple is doing is to launching the Apple Tablet in 2010 that will serve as an vessel to hold multimedia content, digital books, games, and application software. And it’s generally expected to make the list of top five fast-growing products in US ICT market in 2010 along with Smartphone, Blu-ray Player, eBook Reader, and LED TV. Besides Apple Tablet, the long overdue Windows 7, the cloud computing that embraces consumer applications, social-networking website marketing, mobile eCommerce, and online streaming audio/video services, are the other five elite members of the group of six that should sweep US ICT market off its feet in 2010.

Equal emphasis on software, hardware, and services

Topology Research Institute points out that in 2009, US ICT industry is set to fall 5.1% YoY, succumbing to global financial turmoil. But entering 1H10, US government’s stimulus measures aimed at the broadband sector will take effect to help US ICT industrial sales to grow 1.5% in 2010 and 6.5% in 2011 to revisit 2008 level. Topology Research Institute is of the view that US ICT sectoral sales include hardware, software, and services, as hardware is no longer the sole barometer of an industry’s achievement. Digital content, applications and other download services initiated by Apple have carried enough sway to influence sectoral development.

In fact, from iPod + iTunes Store to iPhone + App Store, the way Apple goes about deploying in the digital market has had overwhelming impact on handset design, telecom operations, and the game market. That’s why we at Topology are convinced that Tablet product that Apple plans on launching in 2010 is very likely to begin with such two core businesses as iTune Store and App Store. From there, Apple Tablet will dip feet into such popular areas as electronic books and digital home, enabling users to play back audio/video multimedi, have fun with games, read digitally, surf the Net, socialize virtually, and conduct mobile computing. With so many features to brag about, Apple Tablet will challenge annual shipments of 2.5 million units in 2010 to make the elite list of top-five high-growth ICT products in the US next year.

Other newbies no weakings either

Among the other four members of that elite group, smartphone should see shipments grow 35.4% YoY to 67 million units in 2010 when top four mobile telcos will throw their full weight behind Android handsets while iPhone will continue to sell briskly. Blu-ray players might see tag price fall below US$ 100 en route to US$ 49, while the new found ability to log on to Internet will help boost consumer interest. As such, we at Topology expect Blu-ray player shipments to reach 15mn units in 2010, up 114% YoY.

Eletronic book, meanwhile, should see shipments grow 103% YoY to 5.6 million units in 2010 when Amazon and Sony will move more aggressively. Also in 2010, we expect that electronic book’s tag price will cave in below US$ 150 while offering such new functions as free wireless networking and touch-control navigation. With LED TV, Topology projects shipments at 4mn units, up 471% YoY, while the price difference between an LCD TV and an LED TV will narrow to within 20%. By then, LED TV will account for 11% of overall LCD TV market shipments.

The future lies with six megatrends

Topology also predicts that in 2010, US ICT market will be carried along by six megatrends, including the economic effect Apple’s App Store will go on generating to create annual revenues of up to US$ 2 billion that will be up for grabs by cell phone makers and mobile telcos.

The just-released Microsoft Windows 7 boasts improvement in operating efficiency and smoothness from its much-to-be-desired predecessor Vista and should win over 60% of US enterprises in 12-18 months’ time in the replacement or upgrade markets. Windows 7 will help PC market grow as well.

Cloud computing, which goes seamlessly with average consumers’ daily lives, should become a profitable business in 2010, when Google, Amazon, IBM and other IT giants will engage on a very large scale. That is, cloud computing has begun to move from corporate application to consumer market. It’s expected that in 2010, cloud computing will grow into a US$ 30 billion market in the US, up 30% YoY.

Survey also shows that across the US, 71% of social-networking website subscribers will share shopping experiences every month, while among top 500 retail sites, 56.8% have begun to conduct marketing on Facebook. Topology thinks that social networking websites, which are all the rage now, will be at the fore front of commerical marketing in 2010. The growth in mobile service subscribers and 3G applications is also set to bring development along for mobile commerce, mobile adversting, mobile netowrking, and mobile communities. Related revenues should therefore rev up to US$ 15.2 billion in 2010. Last but not least, the online audio/video streaming service that is popular among quite a lot of consumers will penetrate over 50% of US population by the end of 2009, which will then attract FPD TV, BD Player, and game console enterprises to come board to provide online streaming services of their own.